9 Thoughts on the Presidential Race

A lot has occurred throughout the 2024 election cycle of the United States. My perceptions of who will eventually win have changed repeatedly as events unfolded; however, I finally think we are at a moment of relative stability. Therefore, I have decided to provide 9 thoughts providing my perspective on the current state of the race.

1. The assassination attempt on Donald Trump would have been decisive in any other election cycle. However, I do not think that this event dramatically impacted the polls or shifted the conversation in his direction. Unfortunately (for him), Trump fell prey to a 24/7 news cycle that quickly moved on from his brush with death. This left him without a prolonged bump in the polls.

2. The debate between Trump and Biden will go down as one of the most decisive debates in presidential history. I mentioned in a prior article how Trump’s team probably wished Biden didn’t fall completely on his face. Biden’s extreme failure resulted in the rise of Harris, and that negatively impacts Trump’s chances at victory come November.

3. 2024 is continuing a trend towards a clear division in America along gender lines. Men are increasingly shifting towards becoming an entrenched Republican constituency (even among Gen Z voters!?), while women are increasingly voting for Democrats. This divide is showing up not only in the United States but in other Western oriented democracies (South Korea being one). The implications of this are more than just political. South Korea has seen greater political divides and the result is changing marriage and birth rates to the detriment of the nation’s demographics. Will America see a similar decline?

4. The Harris campaign feels oddly similar to the Clinton campaign of 2016 (in terms of emotion not necessarily policy). The media and the Democrat coalition fawned over Clinton and her ability to bring enthusiasm and joy. Unfortunately, Clinton’s personality and demographic disadvantages popped her ‘era of good feelings.’ I wonder if the same will take place for Harris. She may well run into the same Electoral College problems Clinton faced, and her personality does not relate with many voters (no matter what the party line may indicate). Ultimately, the Harris of today is still the same Harris that was unable to garner a single vote in the Democratic primary back in 2020.

5. BUT. Harris is doing much better than Biden. Trump was on track to handedly win based on all available polling metrics. Harris has made this race competitive, and her polling indicates a race that is tight. Trump needs the polls to miss in his favor in order to achieve victory, whereas this was not the case with his campaign against Biden. There are many factors to explain this, but the best explanation comes down solely to how young Harris is compared to Biden. Biden was just objectively old and unable to represent vigor for a job that necessitates it. Harris is able to do so, and this is turning many voters back to the Democrat coalition.

6. Whoever is trying to convince you that this is race is a done deal for Harris (or Trump) is lying to you. This race will be determined by a few thousand voters across several swing states, and these voters may make up their minds based on events that are yet to occur. We are one October surprise, impactful debate, or conviction away from a complete shift in the outcome.

7. Foreign policy is surprisingly consistent between Trump and Harris. Both sides seem hesitant to continue funding foreign conflicts, and both are pursuing policies that are isolating in nature (i.e. tariffs, funding cuts, immigration limits). These policies showcase Trump’s biggest influence on American politics. We are in a cycle of isolation, and neither the Democrats or Republicans are seriously encouraging policies that promote American leadership on the world stage.

8. The overthrow of Roe v. Wade has (ironically) nullified the pro-life movement. Donald Trump used the words “reproductive rights” in an attempt to appease women who worry about losing their ability to pursue abortion within their state. Show me a time when a Republican running for office would ever use those words. It would have immediately ended their campaign. Instead, Trump remains powerful and the pro-life movement is becoming less and less influential. I could imagine a future where the pro-life movement does not have a viable party to align itself with.

9. Independent voters are limited in their options. RFK Jr. has dropped out of race leaving no viable third party options available. Unfortunately, the biggest consequence of an overly hyped election (i.e. “this election will determine the future of America”) is the limitations of third party candidates to fully showcase different ideas. I hope that new, fresh blood is infused into a decaying system; however, I feel that this may not occur until the political landscape is less charged.

Ultimately, this election cycle is in an undetermined state heading into mid-September. It is anyone’s game, and each side has positive and negative signs they can be encouraged or worried by. This election will be determined by momentum, surprise events, and how the media portrays the race come November. I would encourage everyone, no matter how hopeless or apathetic, to vote in this election. There are more positions than just the presidency at stake, and it is our duty as American citizens to respect our ability to vote. So, take time to research, understand, and grapple with candidates this November. I am not suggesting this because I am worried about democracy this cycle, but simply because it is our civic duty to act upon the rights that we have been blessed with.