America Alone?
International relations in the age of Trump
America holds a unique blend of power and influence with friend and adversary alike. Our economic and military might is capable of bringing nations to heel or empowering key allies. The end of the Cold War ushered in a new phase of American hegemony that was unmatched by China, Russia, or the European Union. We attempted to impose our will from Wall Street to the Middle East, and organizations like the WTO helped cement the dollar as the world’s currency. The NATO alliance continued to expand as more and more countries fell underneath the American nuclear umbrella and began to lean on American military might across the European continent. The America of the early 2000s projected a sense of power, and we used that power for positive (i.e. free trade) and negative (i.e. the war in Iraq) ends.
Yet, these actions came at a cost. Underneath the veneer of American dominance lay a swelling mass of neglected, hurt American families. From Appalachia to the Rust Belt Americans began to feel the pain of limited manufacturing jobs, higher wages, and limited opportunity. Urban areas were becoming more and more wealthy as more individuals flocked to cities with white-collar opportunities leaving blue-collar workers to fend in rural areas with less and less opportunity. The decline of manufacturing, and the rise of urban, elite culture seemed like an after-thought in contrast to the growing power of America on the world stage. Yet, it is now easy to see that such a divided America could not go on indefinitely. Power and influence come at a high cost, and the American taxpayer foot the bill for European security and global stability. Our investments in the UN, WTO, NATO, alongside free trade agreements like NAFTA helped bring about something akin to a ‘rules based order’ at the expense of rural America.
Was this a good trade? Today, America remains a nation of relative strength despite the chaos of COVID-19, inflation, and authoritarian assertiveness in China and Russia. Our economy remains strong in comparison to other nations, and our ability to project power and influence remains important. By these metrics our trade was successful. However, I remain troubled that large sums of money and resources sent abroad are limiting our ability to support those we love at home.
How do we go about navigating this issue? I would argue that both Biden and Trump failed in their ability to meet this moment. Biden attempted to reinvigorate old alliance structures and find commonality abroad. He strove to limit our military footprint while also re-affirming old alliance structures. Unfortunately, Biden’s international moves appeared soft. His evacuation of Afghanistan was a debacle, and his inability to project strength vis-a-vis Russia or Iran dampened his ability to be taken seriously. Domestically, Biden promised infrastructure investment and enhanced manufacturing capacity. Here too, he failed to meet the moment. Infrastructure projects were bogged down in bureaucratic regulation.
Trump’s record is not much better. Trump, correctly, understands the importance of domestic issues to the American electorate, but high tariffs and degraded alliances do nothing to solve the harsh reality of the present moment. We live in a global world, with global implications. A strategy of high regulation and passivity under Biden is no better than high tariffs and aggression under Trump. Instead, America needs to balance between these two mediums in a way that is strong and steady. This could be accomplished in a few key ways:
Focus on broadening alliances while also encouraging allies to invest more into their own defensive capabilities. Trump is correct to ask NATO to pay more, but he goes too far by threatening to leave NATO high and dry. We should also expand bilateral defensive treaties in the Asian sphere to counter the growing threat of China. Yet, these expanded alliances should be met with decreased costs at home. China and Russia are global threats and they require global actors to foot the bill, not just the United States.
Refrain from using tariffs. Instead, invest in manufacturing domestic goods that are of strategic national interest or in fields with US comparative advantage. Congress and Biden did a good job by passing the CHIPS act, and Trump is making progress through investments in the AI sphere. These investments should be done in conjunction with free trade agreements between our allies to foster productivity (thereby allowing these nations to use some of that increased production on defense).
Invest in training programs for rural and Generation Z workers who either lost their jobs due to the decline in US manufacturing or want to improve American productivity. This could be similar to a GI-esque bill that encourages workers to earn vocational schooling or certificates in manufacturing more specialized products. Stripping back small business regulations would also increase hiring and make American products (and workers) more competitive on the world stage.
America does not need to be alone in confronting bad actors. Instead, we can invest in our people at home while also securing alliance structures abroad. The goal? To create a world that limits the ability of international aggression while also preventing domestic productivity loss. We cannot be the America of the 1930s which was bent on isolation, but we also cannot be the America of the 1950s which was capable of massive expenditure abroad. We need an America that meets our present moment and acknowledges our need to help and be helped. Otherwise, we may find ourselves well and truly alone.