My 2024 Election Predictions
I enjoy making predictions. They are an entertaining way to view trends around the world, and they also allow me to think through our political moment. Below, I am providing a few predictions about how this election will go and what may transpire afterwards. A few caveats:
These predications are not based on what I want to happen. They are based on what I think will happen.
I have a higher confidence in some predications over others. Therefore, I will provide clarity on how confident I am within the prediction (High, medium, low confidence).
Prediction 1: Donald Trump will win the Presidential Election (Lowww Confidence)
I flip flop daily between whether or not Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win this election. However, today I am feeling bullish on the Trump campaign. Various factors lead me to believe this. First, Americans feel pretty bad about the economy as of late, and they chalk a lot of that up to the Biden/Harris tenure of high inflation. Additionally, Trump’s favorability remains pretty high (for him) going into the back end of the campaign, and his numbers are much better than they were against Biden or Clinton at this same period in time. Any hidden Trump vote would put Trump over the edge in many of these key races. That being said. There is solid reasoning for why Trump may lose again, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Harris eked out a victory come November 6th. So, take this prediction (more than the others) as a low confidence assessment.
Prediction 2: Kamala Harris will win at least one ‘Blue Wall’ state (High Confidence)
Harris is running strong numbers with white-educated women. This constituency makes up a lot of the electorate, and I think it will tip the balance for her in Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. I could imagine a scenario where she wins at least one of the three with the race being as tight as it is. This could be especially true in a state like Wisconsin which is maintaining okay polling for Harris and does not have as high of an Arab American population as say Michigan.
Prediction 3: Donald Trump will win Nevada and Arizona (High Confidence)
Trump’s dominance in the Sunbelt feels like one of the more sure things this election cycle. He is continuing to raise his approval with Latino and Black voters, and there has been a significant exodus of Republican voters out of liberal states like California and New York. These demographic shifts all help Trump in the Sunbelt, and I could see him get victories in Arizona and Nevada.
Prediction 4: Kamala Harris will contest the election results (Medium Confidence)
I think that Harris will certify the election (no question there). However, I do think this election will be close. Close enough for Kamala Harris to demand re-count’s across the board in the ‘Blue Wall.’ There is precedent for Democratic contestation of election results. Both Al Gore and Hillary Clinton contested the 2000 and 2016 elections with varying tactics. I could imagine Kamala Harris calling for prolonged re-counts and making claims of foreign election interference. These moves would be in alignment with a 21st century trend (inflated by Trump) of finding ways to save face amidst a loss.
Prediction 5: A third assassination attempt against Donald Trump will occur either on or before inauguration day (Medium Confidence)
The rhetoric around a Trump second term is over-dramatized and frankly one of the more dangerous aspects of this campaign. One can see that in the two assassination attempts against him. I predict that Donald Trump (if he wins) will have a third attempt against his life prior to his inauguration. Tensions are high, and a Trump second term may be the last straw for many radicalized individuals. Elections, typically, are moments of vulnerability for democratic states. They are unpredictable, and cause individuals to act in ways they otherwise would not. This leads me to think that there will be a continuation of violence against political candidates as these tensions continue to rise.
Prediction 6: This election will showcase the largest gender gap in voting patterns in American polling history (High Confidence)
Men and women have been voting differently for a few election cycles already. However, there is a clear contrast between who these candidates are appealing to this time around. Harris is making women’s issues a key component of her campaign strategy, while Trump consistently leans more heavily on masculine energy. This will be showcased in this electoral cycle, and it will solidify a trend of an electorate split more heavily along gender lines.
Prediction 7: The Nebraska Senate race will be won by an independent (Low Confidence)
There is a strong chance that the independent candidate in Nebraska could snatch a victory come election day. This would make for a very interesting Senate make-up, since Osborn has promised not to caucus with either party, potentially making him a crucial swing vote on key policy issues. The polls have tightened dramatically, and I (personally) don’t think the mainstream media is giving his campaign a serious shake. Keep on eye on this election, it could be one of the bigger surprises post-November 5th.
Prediction 8: Republicans will lose control of the House (Medium Confidence)
Republicans are on shaky ground in key states like California and New York. Losing House seats in either of these states would result in the loss of the House. I think demographic shifts (like I mentioned in prediction 3), abortion, and poor Republican governance will all play a part in shifting this chamber back to the Democratic corner. Democrats don’t even have to have a great night to shift the chamber in their direction. There are plenty of seats up for grabs in purple districts (California 22nd, 27th, NY 19th to name a few) for this to be a reality.
Prediction 9: The Senate will be tied 50-50, with JD Vance acting as the tie-breaking vote
The Senate will be tied at 50-50 after the night is over. A shock independent win in Nebraska, coupled with Democrats (barely) maintaining their polling advantages will lead to this reality. If this comes to pass, Trump and the Republicans will be coming into power with a shaky mandate, limited political options, and an uphill battle to avoid a lackluster four years of power.
Honestly, many of these predictions are my honest take on the state of this race. I imagine many of these predictions will be completely wrong, others will have an ere of prescience, and still others will be amusing to reflect upon in a weeks time. Yet, I enjoy the exercise of taking stock of the political landscape five days before election day. I hope you do as well.