Post-Election Thoughts

Implications of a Trump Victory

This is a wild country and it is clear that American voters cannot be placed into a box. If I were to tell you 20 years ago that our President would be twice impeached, indicted, and then convicted (both civilly and criminally) you would have laughed in my face. Yet, this is not the entire story. This same president oversaw massive limitations on border crossings, helped create the Abraham Accords, assisted with Operation Warp Speed, and supported tax cuts for small businesses, all while gathering the largest coalition of voters (Whites, women, Blacks, and Hispanics) in Republican political history.

We are a people of paradox. Torn between difficult choices, emotions, and candidates. This reality is especially true in my state of North Carolina. North Carolina went comfortably Trump on election night; however, we also voted in a Democratic Governor and Lieutenant Governor. Many North Carolinians split ballots, and voted in ways that would astound political pollsters and pundits.

All that to say… I have plenty of thoughts after last night, and these thoughts will continue to mature as I have time to process the reality of what has taken place. Suffice to say, while we are nation of paradox we are also a people who can seek to find hope and joy within our day to day experiences. May we seek to pursue peace rather than violence the remainder of this season.

10 Thoughts on Trump’s Victory:

1. I correctly predicted Trump victory a few days ago. My confidence level was very low, but I ultimately concluded that Trump’s chances for victory correlated better with the national mood. Many pundits and media folk will attempt to convince you that Trump won because many Americans appreciate his rhetoric or his podcast with Joe Rogan. That is simply not the case. You cannot outrun an economy hit with inflation and massive immigration issues, and many Americans voted for Trump because he was President at a time when those items were under control.

2. Democrats need to re-think how they are approaching voters. Not only did Trump win, but he showcased strength against Joe Biden and Kamala Harris throughout the campaign despite being indicted, convicted, impeached, and shot at. This truly is an incredible comeback story for a candidate plagued with plenty of issues (some of his own making and some not). Democrats cannot blame sexism, Russia, Joe Rogan, the Electoral College, or Arab Americans in Dearborn. This was a repudiation of the Democratic agenda across all demographics, and the party needs to assess where they are not connecting with voters, and then adjust their agenda to meet voters where they are at.

3. Abortion was not as big of an issue in the final days. Many Democrats (Harris included) where hoping for a situation much like the 2022 midterms where Democrats won because of high woman turn-out in favor of abortion access. This was not the case, and I admit to putting too much stock in the effect abortion would have in the final results. We simply did not see women turn out to vote on the abortion issue, and if they did turn out, they tended to split their ticket in favor of both abortion access and Donald Trump.

4. Trump has completely changed the electorate around Latino voters. He was able to expand gains across the country, and reverse large margins won by Joe Biden back in 2020. If Republicans can keep this advantage they could reasonably campaign in states like New Jersey and New Mexico to wrack up larger Electoral College victories.

5. Speaking of the Electoral College… It is here to stay. Trump won the Electoral College, but he is also projected to win the popular vote. This dramatic result is a feather in the cap of Republicans, and it also showcases that Republicans can build coalitions that lead to popular vote majorities.

6. Donald Trump may have control of all three levers of power in US government. Can govern his coalition effectively, or will he be unable to get key legislation passed? My bet is that big ticket items (i.e. immigration reform, tax cuts) will be implemented prior to the 2026 Midterms. However, I do not think he will be able to garner enough support to repeal Obamacare, pass a nation-wide abortion ban, or make significant budgetary cuts.

7. Democrats are making plenty of noise around how identity politics won Trump the election. Yet, there are deeper realities at play here. Democrats used to be the party of the working class by appealing to economic policies and healthcare reforms. However, Trump’s rise changed the way the Democratic party interacted with lower income Americans. Democrats decided to push increasingly radical agendas that originated within college campuses. The result? Disaffected Democratic voters who turned towards a Republican party speaking to real issues people were experiencing (high immigration, high costs, loss of strength abroad). Democrats need to shift their message away from radicalism if they ever want to regain strength with the voting block they neglected.

8. I worry about a Donald Trump presidency because of the impact tariffs may have on the American economy. They will most definitely increase prices on the American consumer. Additionally, Trump’s cabinet will be filled with individuals more receptive to the whims of his agenda. This unpredictability may not bode well for America.

9. On the other hand, I am encouraged by the direction Trump is taking in regards to international conflict. There is a strong chance that wars in Europe and the Middle East will die down during his presidency due to his ability to project both strength and interpersonal charisma. I hope that this behavior can lead to a more peaceful world in the short run.

10. Finally, I am grateful that this transfer of power was peaceful. I know there is still time for chaos to ensue, but I am still grateful that this is the last time we will see Trump’s name on the ballot. Instead, we can look forward to a political climate with new voices and opportunity when 2028 comes our way. That alone brings me hope for a brighter future.