What a Post-War Ukraine Could Look Like
Peace negotiations and feuding ideas for a post-war Ukraine are accelerating after Trump’s election. Trump is very clear about his desire for peace, but Europe remains shocked at both the speed and style of the negotiations thus far. Zelensky seems to be left out in the cold, along with the rest of the European Union. Instead, Trump is approaching Putin first, in an attempt to bring the Russian dictator to the negotiating table. One can argue that, militarily, Putin is holding the upper hand in this conflict. Russian troops are taking large swathes of Donetsk Oblast, threatening to encircle Pokrovsk (a key Ukrainian transit hub), and expanding military operations into Kharkiv Oblast. Ukraine’s campaign into Kursk Oblast (Russian territory) is stalled, without any opening for real advance, leaving Zelensky in a poor negotiating position.
Where do we go from here? The United States is clearly weary of supporting a continued conflict in Ukraine. Even substantial aid is not able to limit Russian advances, and billions of American taxpayer dollars are causing sentiments similar to the American war in Iraq. Few American’s want to be caught in another ‘forever war’ even if this war is being fought (from our perspective) with money rather than blood. I share a similar sentiment. I wish for less government spending, not more, and I fear that an overextended America in Europe or the Middle East will lead to openings for China in Asia.
Yet, Trump’s posture towards this conflict is befuddling at best and troubling at worst. Why would the leader of the free world first meet with a Russian dictator rather than our European allies? Is it really fair to call Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator when Putin consistently jails, dampens, and assassinates individuals that attempt to speak against him? Even more so… should we really support Trump’s desire to buddy up to Russia, a nation that associates itself with the likes of North Korea, Iran, and China?
Either I am blind to the 4D chess match that Trump is playing, or it is an error in Trump’s judgement brought about by a social media landscape that entertains Russian innocence over Ukrainian defense. It is perfectly acceptable to have debates around the extent of American support for this war. Trump is correct in pointing out that Europe is not paying enough for its own defenses, and I find it infuriating that European’s grandstand about ‘protecting democracy’ when they spend little of their own capital in doing it. It also is pragmatic to admit that Ukraine will not get all of its pre-2014 territory back. The country is unable to win effective counter-offensives at this stage in the war, and it appears that the battle lines will result in less Ukrainian territory in the long term.
However, healthy debate is much different than acquiescing to Russian beliefs about this conflict. It is popular in some isolationist conservative circles to view the Ukrainian conflict as a story of Ukrainian politicians stealing American taxpayer money in the name of a cause that is unwinnable. Some pundits (i.e. Tucker Carlson) even go so far as to blame Ukraine for many of its current woes. I can, in the same breath, admit that this war needs to conclude while also admitting that Russian aggression should not be tolerated. The consequences of not holding onto this truth are catastrophic. Imagine a post-Ukrainian world where territorial sovereignty remains degraded. A Russian seizure of Moldova, the remainder of Georgia, or additional Ukrainian territory is not out of the question. It also creates a world where Taiwan, Israel, and South Korea are more at risk of attack. So, what should the Trump administration pursue instead? Below, I have listed three items that should be included in a potential peace agreement. It attempts to balance American interests with the real threat that Russia and China pose to the international world order. I admit that these are not complete solutions, and the likelihood of agreement between Ukraine and Russia is slim, but I still find a place to hope that peace can be achieved amidst the chaos of a multipolar world.
Cede current Ukrainian territory held by Russia. Unfortunately, Putin’s biggest bargaining chip is his ability to fight a war of attrition. Russia was able to dodge many of the West’s sanctions by coordinating with China and other parties neutral to the conflict. Russian industry is also shifting to manage life in a war economy. No amount of money thrown at Ukraine will change this reality, and it is difficult to see Ukraine creating significant industrial capacity or fielding large numbers of troops in the short term to wage a successful counter-offensive operation.
Support the creation of a European army dedicated to patrolling the border between Russia and Ukraine. Trump should encourage Europe to defend its own interests with its own resources and military personnel. These troops could also be exempted from Article 5 protections laid out in NATO. This option does hold many difficulties, and it creates unpredictability in the event that Putin re-invades (i.e. when do troops fall under Article 5 and when do they not), but it is better than placing American boots on the ground or directly admitting Ukraine into NATO (which for Russia is a non-starter).
Continue the current sanctions regime on the Russian state unless significant reparations are paid to the Ukrainian government. While sanctions were not completely effective, they did limit the ability for Russia to operate within the world market. This move, coupled with keeping $300 billion in seized Russian assets, would send a clear message that ignoring territorial sovereignty comes with clear economic consequences.
Unfortunately, there are no good answers to this conflict. However, I believe that there a few key principles that most of us can get behind. First: Russia, China, and other rogue states are forming an axis of autocracy that should be resisted. Second: America cannot resist these autocratic regimes alone, and we should not be the only one footing the bill. Third: Facts on the ground matter and no amount of far-left grandstanding or far-right Russian support will change the brutality of this war or the limitations of the Ukrainian military. Hopefully, peace can be achieved under the Trump administration. I simply pray that it is a peace that defends our interests and respects the Ukrainian people.